L’Institut de la statistique du Québec (ISQ) recently published their projections of the province’s population from 2021 to 2041. While the institute doesn’t call these projections a certainty, they are a depiction of where regions are headed if recent trends continue. MRC Pontiac Warden Jane Toller has stated numerous times that the region is undergoing a “population boom”, but the ISQ predicts the exact opposite. The breakdown by MRC is available here.
The institute projects that in the MRC Pontiac, the population will decline by 5.2% over the 20 year period. It also predicts that the population will trend older during that timeframe, from an average of 47 to 49.2 years-old. Pontiac is one of just 16 MRCs with a projected decline of 5% or more.
Population increases are projected in all other MRCs in the Outaouais, even in la Vallée-de-la-Gatineau, though theirs is predicted to be a modest 1.7%. The authors of the report note that the more populous MRCs tend to have the strongest growth.
“It shows that among the 19 most populated MRCs, those with 100,000 or more inhabitants in 2016, only one (Saguenay) should see its population decrease by 2041,” the report states (translated). “The only MRC with more than 1 million inhabitants, Montreal, should experience an increase of more than 18%, while the average growth should be approximately 16% in the two groups of MRCs with 100,000 to 999,999 inhabitants. However, these groups are very heterogeneous, since the increases could vary from 34% (La Rivière-du-Nord) to -5% (Saguenay). In groups of MRCs with 25,000 to 99,999 inhabitants, the vast majority of MRCs (33 out of 39) will experience a population increase by 2041 compared to 2016. The average population change in the group of MRCs of 50,000 to 99,999 inhabitants would however be twice as high as that in the grouping of MRCs of 25,000 to 49,999 inhabitants (14% versus 7%).”
The starting population corresponds to the final estimate of the population by MRC on July 1, 2016, with an adjustment to the revised estimate of 2017 and to the provisional estimate of 2018. The synthetic fertility indices and the birth calendar are calculated by MRC for the period 2014-2018.