COVID-19
National projections: between 11,000 and 44,000 deaths in the best of scenarios
Article published on 10 April 2020
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In the best of scenarios, the outbreak of COVID-19 across Canada would kill between 11,000 and 44,000 people in the country, according to announced made earlier Thursday by the Chief Public Health officer of Canada, Theresa Tam.

Her calculations indicate that between 2.5% and 10% of the Canadian population will be infected by the virus, provided that measures are continued to curb the spread of the virus.
“We can not avoid all deaths, but we must avoid those we can.” - Dr. Howard Njoo deputy chief insisted on the need to comply with measures of social isolation and isolation.

Modelled scenarios show impact of public health measures

“It is important to know the limitations and benefits of the data,” said a Public Health press release. Models are not crystal balls and they do not allow us to predict the future. However, they do help us plan and tell us that our collective actions can have a direct and significant effect on the trajectory of the epidemic. “Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said outside his residence in Ottawa yesterday that there is a”light at the end of the tunnel“, expressing that it will take many months before the country can return to normal and that the next few weeks will not be easy.”We could reach the end of the curb by the end of Spring, and the first wave of the outbreak by the summer, but according to Tam, we will more than likely see another outbreak, though less significant, for a number of months before a vaccine can be created." - Prime Minister Justin Trudeau

However, Social and economic activities may resume gradually in the spring or summer, without meaning a return to normal, as explained by Justine Trudeau. He promised on Thursday that the support measures that have been put in place will remain in force for as long as necessary.

According to the projections of Public Health Canada, compared to other countries, Canada is at an “early stage” of the COVID-19 pandemic. The document indicates that Canada “now” has the opportunity to control the epidemic and prepare the health system, as previously demonstrated by other countries. The measures already in place, namely physical distancing, increase the number of tests, isolate cases and quickly trace contacts, represent the “best way for Canada to get out of the epidemic as soon as possible and with the fewer deaths possible.” Otherwise, Public Health says that other scenarios foresee serious consequences.

Also read :

National Projections COVID-19

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